By Vivek Bhardwaj
To Sher Singh Dagar must go the credit of single-handedly changing the course of Delhi’s current political narrative. Elections looked some distance away in Delhi till Monday, but after Dagar was caught on camera allegedly trying to buy AAP legislators, fresh polls look inevitable.
Though Lt Governor Najeeb Jung is likely to tell the Supreme Court today that he would invite the BJP—the single largest Assembly—to form the government, his nostrum is unlikely to delay elections for several reasons.
File photo of AAP MLAs at the swearing-in ceremony in December last year. PTI
One, the SC may accept the AAP view that no party is in a position to form the government. The AAP sting has gained a semblance of credibility because of the BJP’s show-cause notice to Dagar, who, on his part, has not denied meeting AAP legislators at his home.
The SC may find merit in the AAP argument that spite of its claim that the party is ready to form the government, the BJP doesn’t have the numbers and is still shopping around for turncoats and traitors.
The SC, of course, has the option of going by the LG’s recommendation that there is still a possibility of government in Delhi. But the LG will now find it extremely difficult to explain how a new government can be formed without turning Delhi into a market for trading horses.
Two, even if the LG succeeds in convincing the apex court that the single-largest be given a chance, the BJP may chicken out of the race. After the Dagar episode, only the dimwits within the party would not have realised that its attempts to come to power have lost moral legitimacy and by pursuing the dream further it will continue to lose whatever remains of its goodwill in the electorate.
So far, it seems, the BJP high command had left Delhi to its local unit. But the negative publicity and the resultant backlash among voters will force Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to take note of the loss to the party’s image because of its pursuit of power in Delhi.
Modi is in the process of living up to his image of an incorruptible leader and he may not want to cede the high moral ground he is currently occupying by remaining silent on his party’s escapades in Delhi.
Three, legislators willing to auction themselves to the highest bidder will now reluctantly accept that all deals are off. Now that it has become clear that the AAP has laid traps for poachers and the prey in Delhi, it is unlikely that Congress or APP legislators who were on the BJP’s shopping list will have the courage to negotiate a deal. So, the BJP’s numbers are not likely to move beyond its current strength.
Four, the Congress can’t afford to sit on the fence any more. Party leader Ajay Maken was on Monday unequivocal in his demand for fresh polls. He raised doubts over Jung’s sudden interest in reviving the Delhi Assembly and asked the SC to take note of the BJP’s bid to buy MLAs. Maken is a seasoned Delhi politician and he knows that the Congress will not gain anything by tacitly supporting the BJP’s effort to form a government.
On paper, the Congress is the only party that has nothing to lose in the election. Its performance in the Lok Sabha elections had hit a trough. If elections are held tomorrow, the party will either remain where it is—the most likely scenario— or gain a few seats. But by allowing the BJP more time to form a government, it risks losing both its MLAs and the opportunity to win the battle of perceptions in the voters’ mind.
Five, the people of Delhi want an election. The Dagar episode has convinced most of the people in Delhi that reluctance for fresh elections will only foist upon them a government born out of corruption. Voters may not be ready for another acerbic, high-decibel election but they would prefer them over a chief minister devoid of moral authority and political legitimacy.
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