NEW DELHI: India's industrial output growth hit a four-month low in July while inflation remained high, underscoring the struggle of Asia's third-largest economy to make a sustained recovery from its longest stretch of sub-par growth in decades.
Output from mines, utilities and factories grew by a much slower-than-expected 0.5 per cent year-on-year, government data showed yesterday, down from June's revised 3.9pc rise.
Output growth hit a 19-month high of 5pc in May. Retail inflation, which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tracks for setting lending rates, edged down marginally to 7.8pc in August from 7.96pc a month earlier, helped by slower annual rises in prices of fuel and clothes.
The numbers come after the economy posted its fastest growth in 2-1/2 years in the quarter to June, helped by a revival in industry. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized on that figure to highlight the "huge positive sentiment" behind India's recovery.
However, high inflation would make it tougher for Modi to encourage Indian consumers, who power nearly 60pc of the economy, to loosen their purse strings. It would also make the central bank wary of lowering interest rates later this month.
The RBI, which wants to reduce retail inflation to 6pc by 2016, left interest rates steady last month, citing inflationary risks from a late monsoon.
While better rainfall in recent weeks, falling global crude prices, moderating vegetable prices and a favourable statistical base will likely help lower inflation, rates are widely expected to remain on hold when the RBI reviews them on September 30.
"The outlook on inflation seems less discomforting than it was a month back," says Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank, in Mumbai.
"We continue to expect the RBI will keep its policy rate unchanged through this fiscal year (until March 2015) with a probable action mid-next year."
The prospects of a revival in demand-driven price pressures following a pick-up in economic activity and sooner-than-expected interest rate increases in the US are also expected to weigh on the RBI's rate decision.
Any decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise rates, which have been held near zero since December 2008, will have implications for India, as it could lead to capital outflows, weakening the rupee and inflating costs of imported commodities.
Modi won India's strongest electoral mandate in 30 years in May, vowing to lift sliding economic growth, cool inflation and create enough jobs for its young workforce.
The optimism fanned by Modi's rise to power has brought inflows of nearly $14 billion of foreign funds into Indian equities as investors bet that his drive to cut red tape will revive stalled projects and underpin the economic recovery.
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