Last January, David Cameron did something big, bold and risky. Speaking at the offices of Bloomberg in London, he committed himself to holding a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union if he is returned as Prime Minister in 2015.
He had previously said such a referendum was neither necessary nor helpful. There are several reasons he changed that position, but a lot of them relate to public mood that led to the rise of the UK Independence Party, and the effects of that rise on the Conservative Party.
It was a big speech, arguably the biggest Mr Cameron will ever give, at least in terms of potential consequences for this country.
Today, Mr Cameron is preparing to give another big speech, again about Europe. His focus will be on immigration issues, and the changes in migration rules he thinks the British people will require if they are to vote to remain in the EU in that referendum.
Though the full contents of the speech remain a bit unclear, the very fact that it is being given has cheered some Conservatives. They're pleased the PM tackling is the European immigration issue head-on.
It's fair to say expectations are high. Some Tories have referred to this speech as a "game-changer", the sort of dramatic political intervention that can swing public opinion and decide the fate of political parties.
With that in mind, it's worth looking back at the polls since Mr Cameron's last big game-chaning speech. Just what effect did that referendum promise have on support for Ukip and the Conservatives? Have a look at this chart and draw your own conclusions.
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