If anyone in France can be said to have benefited from last week’s terrorist rampage, it may be President Francois Hollande.
In the course of a week, the 60-year-old head of state went from being the most unpopular president in recent French history to one who oversaw a terrorist manhunt and brought world leaders and millions of voters together in a show of political force. Three distinct yet connected attacks in Paris -- the worst such assault in France in more than half a century -- claimed the lives of 17 people before police killed the three gunmen.
The president’s handling of the situation is bearing fruit. Surveys showed his approval ratings have jumped with pollsters predicting further gains in the weeks ahead. Voters frequently rally behind leaders in a time of crisis, so Hollande needs to act quickly to durably turn around a mandate that has been dogged by economic stagnation and social division, said Bruno Jeanbart, a pollster at OpinionWay in Paris.
“This is not yet a turning point -- it’s too early to tell -- but it could be made into one,” Jeanbart said in an interview. “It is an incredible opportunity for him to change his image profoundly. Without it, Hollande would have had a very hard time. He needs to seize the moment.”
With just over two years to go before the next presidential election, about 25 percent of voters now approve of Hollande’s performance, up from 21 percent a month ago and a low of 18 percent in October, according to a survey Jeanbart’s company produced for Metro newspaper and LCI television.
Five-Point Bounce
The pollster predicted that Hollande will add another 5 percentage points next month.
The poll of 1,007 voters was taken between Jan. 6 and 8. Three quarters of the interviews were conducted after the Jan. 7 attack by two men at Charlie Hebdo, a satirical magazine, left 12 people dead in eastern Paris. Two other attacks in the French capital claimed five more lives.
A TNS Sofres survey for Le Figaro Magazine showed Hollande gaining 5 points in a month to 20 percent. That pulls him up from 13 percent in November, the lowest for any French president at that point in his mandate under the current constitution.
The TNS poll of 1,000 adults was carried out between Jan. 8 and 12, meaning it captured the impact of further deaths and the eventual killing of the three gunmen by police.
An Odoxa poll for today’s Le Parisien newspaper shows that 29 percent of voters say Hollande is a “good president,” up 8 points from a month ago. Oxoda interviewed 1,005 adults Jan. 13. A Harris Interactive poll for LCP TV showed that 83 percent of the population approved of Hollande’s handling of the crisis.
International Support
Hollande organized a march in Paris, drawing world leaders ranging from German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rallies across France in support of the victims and to defend the freedom of expression drew the largest such gathering as 3.7 million people took to the streets.
Between Jan. 7 and Jan 12, Hollande spoke publicly five times. He addressed the nation twice -- on the night of the first attack and then after the gunmen were killed -- and made three other public statements, one immediately after the attack on Charlie Hebdo.
As head of state, he called for the first national day of mourning since the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington and evoked “the spirit of resistance,” repeating the need for unity, respect and solidarity
Leading Mourners
“Hollande managed to find the right words and provide the right images from the start,” Emmanuel Riviere, a pollster at TNS Sofres, said in an interview. “This could be a trigger for further improvement if it’s managed right.”
Yesterday Prime Minister Manuel Valls received a standing ovation from lawmakers across the political spectrum for a speech in the National Assembly chastising the terrorists and calling for unity. Lawmakers sang the Marseillaise, the national anthem, in the lower house of parliament for the first time since the end of World War I.
Valls and Hollande were judged by 79 percent of those polled by Odoxa as having acted properly during the crisis, former president Nicolas Sarkozy 65 percent and Marine Le Pen, head of the anti-immigrant National Front, 33 percent.
Still, leading a nation in mourning can be easier than fixing a moribund economy. Pollsters agree that with jobless claims at a record 3.49 million and an economy that has barely grown since he took office in May 2012, the Socialist president has his work cut out for him if he is to stand a chance of re-election in April and May 2017. Those are the challenges that will determine whether the president can lay the foundations of a comeback.
“The moment is ripe, possibilities are opening,” said Riviere. “Hollande needs to seize the opportunity.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Helene Fouquet in Paris at hfouquet1@bloomberg.net; Mark Deen in Paris at markdeen@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Crawford at acrawford6@bloomberg.net Ben Sills, Vidya Root
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