Prima facie, the stunning and unexpected defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa at the hands of his former cabinet colleague-turned-detractor Maithripala Sirisena in the Sri Lankan Presidential elections may be seen as a strategic victory of sorts for India and a setback to China.
While this is actually so, drawing this conclusion would be a bit hasty and premature given the fact that a resurgent China would not be throwing in the towel; not now, not ever.
India has two immediate political goals in Sri Lanka and would look forward to the new President to deliver on both: (i) Stemming the ominous rise of Chinese influence in Sri Lanka; and (ii) Ensuring that the new President devolves greater political powers to the Tamils, something that Rajapakse government had promised repeatedly but never delivered.
The first point seems doable, if one takes into account the strong statements of Sirisena during the election campaign as well as the pledges he made in his election manifesto.
Sirisena openly talked about the threats posed by Rajapakse’s dalliances with China and Beijing’s rapid forays into the Sri Lankan strategic space. He even warned his countrymen of China becoming a “slave” and a ‘colony”, without mentioning China directly.
Maithripala Sirisena. AFP.
Sample Sirisena’s strongly-worded statement in his election manifesto: “The land that the White Man took over by means of military strength is now being obtained by foreigners by paying ransom to a handful of persons. If this trend continues for another six years our country would become a colony and we would become slaves.”
The most worrying point for India over the China factor in Sri Lanka was that between August and December last year, Chinese warships and submarines, including a nuclear submarine, docked in Sri Lankan waters several times. India lodged a strong protest with Colombo every time but little came off it. Under Sirisena, this should stop.
The rapid forays by China into Sri Lanka can be seen from the fact that Chinese lending to Colombo has grown fifty times to $490 million in the past decade. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Sri Lanka last September and promised to pump in billions of dollars in infrastructure projects in the island nation, apart from a couple of billion dollars worth projects the Chinese are already handling in Lanka, including a $1.4 billion sop to the Lankans for building a new city.
Sirisena has criticized mega projects underway or in pipeline in Sri Lanka with credit from foreign countries, leaving none in doubt that his dig is aimed at China because no other foreign power is practicing this kind of cheque book diplomacy with Colombo.
No wonder then that the United States has promptly hailed the presidential election result in Sri Lanka.
Yes, during his decade-long tenure as Sri Lanka’s most powerful leader Rajapakse allowed China to make inroads into the island nation like never before. But the previous Manmohan Singh government’s dilly-dally diplomacy with Sri Lanka, his compulsions of coalition politics and the fact that Manmohan Singh allowed himself to be hectored by a demanding ally DMK contributed to the emergence of China factor in Colombo in a big way.
The second issue of Sri Lankan Tamils is more complicated. India wants Colombo to implement soonest possible the Thirteenth Amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution aimed at devolution of power equitably at the provincial level in Sri Lanka. New Delhi has been pressing Colombo to implement, and even improve, the amendment which is important for India as it flows from the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987.
Sample the 14 August 2013 statement in parliament on this issue by the then Minister of State for External Affairs Preneet Kaur:
“There have been recent reports of plans by the Government of Sri Lanka to amend certain provisions of the Sri Lankan Constitution relating to the functioning of Provincial Councils. India has long advocated the creation of an environment in Sri Lanka in which all communities, particularly the Sri Lankan Tamils, are masters of their own destiny within the framework of a united Sri Lanka. Our objective continues to remain the achievement of a future for the Tamil community in Sri Lanka that is marked by equality, dignity, justice and self-respect. In this context, India has been engaged with the Government of Sri Lanka at the highest levels on its stated commitment to implement the 13th amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution and to go beyond, so as to achieve meaningful devolution of powers.”
Rajapaksa promised Indian leaders several times in last couple of years that he was on the job and the needful would be done, but the promise remained a mirage.
Though Sri Lankan Tamils – and Muslims as well – have voted overwhelmingly for Sirisena, India or the Tamil community should not be complacent that the new Sri Lankan President will deliver on this issue.
India will have to wait and watch to see if Sirisena walks his talk and delivers on the two points on China and Tamils enumerated above.
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