Except the NC, all major political parties are in favour of holding the Assembly polls on time. But will the people of Jammu and Kashmir be able to cope, asks Riyaz Wani
Slippery slope J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has faced widespread criticism for the way his government handled the situation during and after the floods. Photo: Faisal Khan
Although still dogged by a degree of uncertainty, the election to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly seems to be on course. The Election Commission has already set in motion the process of working out the poll schedule and the appointment of returning officers for all the 87 Assembly constituencies.
Deputy Election Commissioner Vinod Zutshi, who visited the state on 8-10 October, held consultations with the representatives of various political parties and took stock of the situation arising out of the recent floods, which devastated large swathes of south, central and north Kashmir. On 18 October, Chief Election Commissioner VS Sampath and Election Commissioners HS Brahma and Nasim Zaidi visited Srinagar to assess the situation.
However, all parties except the ruling National Conference (NC) and some smaller outfits, wanted the polls to go ahead. Even the Congress, which runs the state government in alliance with the NC, has spoken against the deferment.
“We told the Election Commission that governor’s rule is not an option,” says state Congress chief Saifuddin Soz. “We also feel that the people are of the opinion that a new government will be in a better position to deliver on rehabilitation.”
Similarly, the People’s Democratic P arty (PDP) believes that a state government at the fag end of its term is not suited to carrying forward rehabilitation work. “Rehabilitation is a massive undertaking. More so, when the devastation has taken place on a colossal scale,” says senior PDP leader Naeem Akhter. The party claims that the NC wants the polls deferred to get more time to salvage its battered image. “We cannot trust a government which, for the most part, has watched this disaster from the sidelines to handle the post-flood work.”
The PDP has also urged the Election Commission to form a committee of state and Central government officers to supervise the relief and rehabilitation of the flood victims until the time the election is over and a new government takes charge.
On the other hand, the NC has made its position very clear to the Election Commission. The party believes that holding polls at this time will adversely affect the post-flood effort. “We feel that holding the election now will divert attention and resources away from the urgent rehabilitation work. Besides, you can’t hold a massive democratic exercise like this when lakhs of people are in the process of rebuilding their lives before the onset of winter,” says NC spokesman Junaid Azim Mattoo, adding that after the Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat in 2001, the election had been deferred by seven months.
However, Mattoo says that in seeking to postpone the polls, the NC has not sought the extension of the term of the government. “This is for the Central government to decide what sort of interim power arrangement they want to have in the state,” he says.
According to the NGO ActionAid, around seven lakh people have been affected by the deluge and there has been extensive damage to land, houses and livestock. The initial government estimates reveal that around 60,000 houses have suffered heavy to partial damage and around 30,000 houses have collapsed.
So, the arguments against holding polls go like this: the widespread devastation caused by the deluge can hamper the participation of a large section of the affected population and holding polls this year will divert attention and resources away from urgent rehabilitation work before the onset of the harsh Kashmiri winter.
And those arguing in favour of the polls cite the fundamental inability of a government near the completion of its term to undertake the long-term relief and reconstruction effort. More so, when this government has already proved itself unequal to the task. Second, the rehabilitation work when polls are looming on the horizon is seen as liable to politicisation. And for this reason, a new government is seen to be eminently better placed to mop up the massive humanitarian fallout of the flood.
This leaves December, when the Valley will be in the thick of winter, as the only time for the polls. The Election Commission will have to guard against the nasty turn in weather on the days when polls are scheduled. Besides, the freezing temperature and heavy snowfall could immobilise the government.
However, the PDP rules out any weather challenge to the polls by citing that the last Assembly polls were also held in December. “In the previous Assembly election in 2008, the last phase of polling was on 24 December,” recalls Akhter. “It is entirely feasible to hold polls in December.”
Underlying the PDP’s impatience for the polls is the party’s current standing as the most favourite to win, or at least emerge as the largest single party. The party has set its sights on the 46 seats in the Valley. It also expects a deeper encroachment into Jammu and Ladakh, which have 37 and four seats, respectively. And if the disenchantment with the NC and the Congress lingers, which is the likely short-term scenario, the PDP has a strong chance to come out on top.
The party has already started preparing in this direction. For now, it has strictly rejected insinuations of an alleged tie-up with the BJP, an alliance it sees as potentially detrimental to its electoral chances.
But the NC, which is down in the dumps — its already vulnerable political standing hit hardest by the floods — is least inclined to face the polls. The party sees some ray of hope in the rehabilitation effort, which if executed with some success could insinuate it back into the favour with a section of the population. The term of the coalition government ends in early January, and the NC wants to make the most of the time before the likelihood of governor’s rule, should polls be deferred to March-April.
The Congress’ call for the polls, however, has taken many by surprise. Much like the NC, the national party is in dire straits. It faces a creeping BJP encroachment in Jammu province, its core constituency, and bleak prospects in the Kashmir Valley, where the party finds it difficult to retain the few seats it represents. But despite that, the Congress has sought the polls to be held on time. Both its top leaders from the state, Soz and former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, have batted for the polls. One reason for this is the chances of an alliance with the PDP in the postpoll scenario. And which, should the PDP emerge as the single largest party, could win the Congress a berth in the new ruling combine.
The BJP, which has emerged as a major political player, has maintained an open mind on the polls, ready to face both prospects. The party is banking on a consolidation of Hindu vote bank plus a play of some incidental political factors in its favour — one of them being the division of Muslim votes along sectarian and ethnic lines.
Last week, the Election Commission sought a detailed proposal from J&K Chief Electoral Officer Umang Narula about the phasing of the polls. According to sources, Narula has also issued a notification designating government officials as returning officers for all the 87 Assembly constituencies.
If such indications are anything to go by, the Assembly election will be held on time despite the NC’s protestations.
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