I think the Modi government got its first lesson in realpolitik during President Xi Jin Peng’s recent state visit to India. As he enjoyed Gujarati hospitality and his wife charmed her way into the hearts of one of Delhi’s elite educational institutions, the PLA was busy making inroads into Chumar, a recent hotspot along the Line of Actual Control. Indignant commentators have since raised a cacophony as if to say ‘how could you do this to us Mr President while at the same time enjoying our hospitality.’ Listen folks! There is nothing to be indignant about. This is classic hard-ball realpolitik – something that Xi Jin Peng is known to revel in.
What did India expect? That weeks after PM Modi cemented ties with Abe’s Japan, and barely a week before re-calibrating ties with the US in a high profile visit, India could woo China with salivating prospects of increased trade and commercial ties, and at the same time expect to make breakthroughs in the fragile border situation. While I am certain that PM Modi did not have very high expectations, I think the sheer timing of the face-off at Chumar even took him by surprise. To his credit, he did immediately express his concern very forthrightly to President Xi Jin Peng, who responded very chivalrously a few days later by exhorting his commanders to clean up their act and be prepared for regional wars under hi-tech conditions just as India quickly responded by rushing a large number of troops into the area. The sparring was needless, but it was inevitable as China sized-up the new Modi government. In the final analysis, India held its own because of decisive leadership.
In these times of exhilarating economic growth, there is a growing euphoria and a misplaced feeling that economic imperatives will over-ride existing geo-political rivalries, historical tensions, nationalistic posturing and balance of power realities. Realists like Henry Kissinger must be enjoying the current face-off between India and China and waiting to see where it leads to. I would strongly recommend the ninety year old foreign policy Czar’s latest book titled ‘World View’ to all those who think that globalisation and economic progress have sidelined old Westphalian templates of inter-state relations. In the meantime, the sooner idealism and seeking the ‘good boy image’ retreats from Indian strategic consciousness, and realism creeps back into the consciousness of India’s strategic community, the faster will it be able to match the ambiguity and strategic nimbleness of a focussed China.
It is still early days for the Modi government and I think it has already started seriously considering whether India can continue the policy of ‘running with the hares and hunting with the hounds,’ or will it have to recalibrate ties and redraw red lines with respect to friends, strategic partners, competitors, rivals and adversaries. Staying with the Chinese conundrum, let us for one moment try and understand them better. There is clearly something that is rattling them in the Chumar and Demchok sector as it is in the area around Depsang Plain, an area that saw a face-off last year. Has India ever tried to change the narrative and ask them what is it that that they are worried about? Is it that the existing Indian positions in those areas have a clear view of happenings on the Chinese side of the LAC? Is it that China is uncomfortable about Indian domination of Siachen? Or is it that they want to creep forward by a few kms here and there and then spring another surprise by offering us a Border Agreement similar to the one offered by Deng Xiao Peng from a position of strength in the 1980s. The possibilities are immense and I am sure many wise minds are working on this, however, it is only a realisation that India stands to gain more than China from a border agreement give or take a few kms here and there, which will spur greater debate on the issue across the country.
If the ghosts of 1962 can be exorcised and if both India and China can sit down and delineate and demarcate the border based on existing realities, Modi and Xi Jin Peng can well look at being joint recipients of a Nobel Peace Prize by forging a lasting border agreement between the two most populous nations over the next few years. China too needs to recalibrate its strategy to deal with a nationalist government in India that is as proud of its civilizational heritage as China is of its notion of ‘Middle kingdom Supremacy.’ Its veiled threat about infrastructure development in Arunachal Pradesh barely a day before border negotiations began between the two sides in Delhi is reflective of a petulant insecurity about ‘peripheral instability on the border with India.’ One wonders what reassurances are required from India to allay these fears. Instead of repeatedly facing off and whipping-up unnecessary hysteria over what is actually pretty desolate high altitude terrain, it is high time the two countries get down to embarking on a joint survey of the border and physically demarcating the entire border so that the possibility of seeing the LAC converted into an international border becomes a reality. Just as Sun Tzu continues to influence the ‘strategic consciousness’ of the Chinese leadership irrespective of its political inclination, the re-emergence of ‘Kautilyan Principles’ in Indian statecraft augurs well for the Indian state as it balances multiple fissures and cracks with immense potential for building comprehensive national power.
The writer is a political historian
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