With weather forecasts on the intensity of Cyclone ‘Hudhud’ by various monitoring sites in the world varying wildly, people living along the southern Odisha coast are keeping their fingers crossed. The dreadful memories of Cyclone Phailin-- exactly a year ago-- are still fresh in their minds and they are hoping that the prediction by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the least scary of them all, hits Bull’s Eye like it did last time round.
While IMD has dubbed it a Category 1 (119-154 km) storm and forecast wind speeds of 130-140 km per hour, gusting up to a maximum of 165 km per hr, at the time of landfall in the forenoon of Sunday, the US based Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), among the most trusted weather forecast stations in the world, has painted a far more serious scenario.
"Favourable upper-level conditions will persist, allowing ‘Hudhud’ to steadily intensify, peaking at 110 knots ( around 203 kmph ), gusting to 135 knots (250 kmph) prior to landfall near Vishakhapatnam on October 12 forenoon," says JTWC in its prediction.
Representational Image. PTI
Tropical Storm Risk, another leading weather warning site dedicated to storm tracking, has said ‘Hudhud’ could turn into a Category 3 storm -which means a wind speed of 178-208 km per hour at the time of landfall.
Meteorologists at the US-based weather site AccuWeather.com believe that this developing cyclone, now equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane with winds sustained at 120 kmph (75 mph), could become stronger as it tracks west-northwest across the Bay of Bengal in an environment that will allow the storm to strengthen into the strongest cyclone of the year in the northern Indian Ocean.
The intensity of the storm will obviously be lesser on the Odisha coast since all forecasts suggest that ‘Hudhud’ will have landfall near Vishkhapatnam, unlike last time when ‘Phailin’ hit the coast at Gopalpur in southern Odisha’s Ganjam district. The IMD has predicted that wind speed on the southern Odisha coast would be in the range of 80-90 km/hr, as against 210 km/hr during Phailin.
Another major relief for the people is the near unanimity among weather forecasting stations that the cyclonic storm would weaken within 12 hours of landfall and dissipate within the next 48 hours.
But that is where the relief ends and the worries begin. All forecasts suggest heavy rainfall across the state during the next 48 hours with eight districts – Ganjam, Gajapati, Kandhamal, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Koraput and Malkangiri – in south Odisha expected to receive a real pounding with up to 250 mm of rains.
The last four, in particular, are a problem for the administration since these tribal dominated districts have very little experience of cyclonic storms and their after effects. A worried government has resorted to sensitising people in these areas about the impact of the storm and warning them against plying boats on the rivers through the public address system. Heavy rains are certain to trigger floods in the three major rivers in the area - Bansadhara, Nagabali and Rushikulya- and devastate tribal settlements.
The course of the cyclonic storm also suggests that it could trigger heavy rains in the upper catchment areas of Mahanadi in neighbouring Chhattisgarh, which would mean the biggest river in the state that passes through some of the most densely populated areas would have plenty of water to contend with. Authorities at the Hirakud dam, which regulates the flow of water in the river, have already opened 15 sluice gates in anticipation of water gushing in from the upper reaches and there are indications that more could be opened in the next few hours. Depending on the amount of rain over the next two days, much of coastal Odisha could be staring at the possibility of floods.
State government officials too are worried about containing the impact of the flood that is bound to follow the cyclonic storm. They don’t want to be caught napping, like they were during the post-Phailin floods. While the entire official machinery worked tirelessly to evacuate people from the vulnerable areas ahead of the cyclone last time, they were found grossly wanting when it came to meeting the challenge of the floods that followed.
That is the one thing the administration is guarding against this time.
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