Patience is the hallmark of crucial negotiations in politics, especially when it is about power-sharing. That is why veteran Marathi journalist Prakash Akolkar said on a TV panel discussion on Sunday that Shiv Sena ought to seal its lips even as the leads popped out of the EVMs, pointing to a hung Assembly.
An hour earlier, Sanjay Raut had asserted Shiv Sena’s nominee, Uddhav Thackeray, would be the chief minister. He had said it rather cleverly, implying Sena would get the majority. He at the same time, showed respect, which was missing the past few weeks, for the BJ and indicated a contingency: Sena hoped to get back into the tie-up, wishing away the recent past.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. PTI
That seems to have done the Sena in, going by the subsequent events that unfolded during the day. The BJP kept aloof from its older partner even if both needed each other. When Nationalist Congress Party sprang the surprise with its outside support, Sena was forced to move cautiously. Uddhav Thackeray said, "We can only take a decision on alliances if someone approaches us."
The power equations had changed, including the fact that the BJP was the big brother now, proving that it could win in spite of the Sena, and win more seats than Sena was willing to give during the polls. The BJP rubbed it in, but didn’t even bother to call its old partner. Amit Shah had begun playing a game, a combination of chess and poker.
If Pawar has received a grateful nod of acceptance from the BJP, we don’t know about it. Sena was repeatedly reminded that despite their breakup, other places — a minister in Delhi and civic corporations etc — were untouched by the BJP. It was not an invitation. But a reminder that things could change.
In this context, a throwback to 1999 is in order when a coalition government came to be, with a post-poll alliance between the Congress and the NCP. They had competed, had gotten a hung verdict and smoked a peace pipe. Chhagan Bhujbal, who could have been the chief minister, ended up being the deputy CM. Vilasrao Deshmukh, already elected his party’s leader in the legislature was reconciled to be the Leader of Opposition.
That was because in an open display of anxiety, Bhujbal had urged Sushilkumar Shinde "to do something or anything" being "a big party". Else the Shiv Sena and the BJP would be back in the saddle. This, unfortunately was on live television, when lined up together by Rajdeep Sardesai, who was then with NDTV.
Characteristically, Shinde hummed and made polite noises, not knowing his High Command’s stance. Bhujbal, NCP’s state chief, was apparently speaking on his own and that suddenly queered the ground. It took all the NCP had to retrieve the initiative. Of course, the Congress knew it had to bargain with the ace negotiator, Sharad Pawar. It took four days for the silent but sweating Congress to reach out to him.
At one time, when the Congress tried to play tough, Pawar did two things. One was to invite Uddhav and Raj Thackeray home for a dinner where, as it transpired, no politics was discussed. Two, he sent off Bhujbal to visit Sudhakarrao Naik to start talking to Shiv Sena, a charade to which the Congress succumbed. Bhujbal let the media know it in a stage whisper. There were no such talks ever held.
Bhujbal’s haste then is equal to the rush Raut showed of a party now on tenterhooks – how does it explain a realigning with the BJP? To another section within, how does it explain muffing a chance? The problem is Sena has no negotiator who can work out deals with Amit Shah – the general of the “Afzal Khan’s army”.
Pawar always does what he does on a purely need-to-know basis. If journalists get to know any of the goings on, it is with the desired twist provided to it by Pawar himself. He has negotiated wealth-sharing among reputed families where disputes had arisen, including the separation terms of a couple of a former royal family.
Most of what NCP was up to was conveyed in a structured manner at media briefings held regularly when the Congress was reluctant to open its mouth. It was because that party had no autonomy when NCP’s shots were called locally. Vilasrao Deshmukh was stunned when he came to know from NCP, not Congress, that he was the chosen one to be the CM.
NCP's offer of outside support via television bytes lacked the details the Sena was dying to know but never got to. Though it apparently took Akolkar’s counsel seriously, the wind was taken out of its sails by unsolicited offer of NCP’s outside support. It was anxious, as numbers emerged, to work out a new equation to share power but was unwilling to risk a rejection.
That feared rejection is where the BJP succeeded in the mind game. It did not want to even notice Sena’s anxiety. It appears to want to see Sena to cower, apprehensive about a term only in the Opposition which it had not got to lead in the decade, forget heading the government. Sena’s gung-ho attitude was no more on display anymore.
The post-poll terms and conditions between the NCP and the Congress took over an excruciating fortnight to work out after the initial contact by the Congress, and towards the end, only the power-sharing formula worked out by the Sena-BJP adopted as its own frame work. The smaller party got the best or meaty portfolios — Finance, Home, Public Works etc — and the Speaker’s chair too.
That night, after the done deal Pawar analysed the reasons why it took so long. For one, never make it easy for the rival contender to get his or her fulfilment of securing even the rightful things craved for. Always display a reassurance as if the deal mattered more to the other party. Let it linger, day by the painful day of waiting.
And here was the key: "If Bhujbal had not blurted out the fears, which was justified, the NCP could have got also the CM’s job and everything else NCP wanted." In short, keep everything close to the chest. Probably, like the reasons why he suddenly announced the factors that prompted the unilateral announcement of support from outside to the BJP? Like making it easier for BJP to deal with the Sena?
No comments:
Post a Comment