Three weeks after the election results in Maharashtra were announced, the BJP and the Shiv Sena continue to eye each other warily, wondering how to break through the logjam that is keeping them apart. After an initial bout of barely concealed hostility, things have calmed down, but well-placed leakages ensure that each side manages to get its point across. The BJP has let it be known, at least so the media says, that it wants the Sena to announce its support before considering any partnership. The Sena knows this is a ploy, because once the trust vote is taken and the BJP sails through, the bigger party will have the upper hand and may impose its conditions on the smaller one. Give us ministerships and we will support you, says the Sena.
On the BJP side, there is confidence that the government will not fall, because the NCP has now come forward and said it will vote for the new
government, thus removing any doubt of its majority in the House. But to be seen taking support from the NCP, a party that Narendra Modi called
“The Naturally Corrupt Party”, can prove detrimental to the BJP’s image of being anti-corruption. The Sena knows that; but can it afford to push the BJP beyond a point?
To anyone observing this ritual, it may seem somewhat strange that the BJP and the Sena are taking so much time over what should be a straightforward affair. Both the Sena and the BJP were partners for 25 years and have so much in common—surely that is more important than the tiny details, which can be worked out. Why are they dilly-dallying so much?
But here’s the thing-the BJP and the Shiv Sena are not natural allies. Or more accurately, they are no more natural allies. If anything, they are firmly on different tracks, with very different objectives and goals. Eventually, they will clash with each other; both sides know that and are thus trying to put themselves in a position that strengthens, rather than weakens them.
This assessment may appear counter-intuitive to many—after all, the BJP and the Shiv Sena have so much in common. They are both right wing organisations, they both preach Hindutva and they are both resolutely anti-Congress. Plus they happily got along for 25 years. What has changed?
Consider the history of both organisations. When the BJP was born in Bombay in 1980, out of the ashes of the defunct Jan Sangh, the Sena was already a political force in the city. Its attempts to spread its wings in the state had not proved very successful, but Bal Thackeray was the uncrowned king of Bombay, even if some of his political decisions, like supporting Indira Gandhi, had mystified his followers. The BJP at the time was an organisation in desperate need of leaders, a philosophy and direction.
Towards the end of the decade, the BJP began to grow, thanks mainly to aggressive propogation of Hindutva. In Maharashtra, a deal was struck between the two parties with a clear understanding that the Sena would always be the senior partner of the alliance—it would get more tickets and therefore have more clout. That paid dividends in 1995, but once the government was voted out in 1999, the coalition just couldn’t beat the Congress-NCP.
Two things began happening at this time—the BJP began growing while the Sena remained where it was. The latter eventually broke into two, when Raj Thackeray parted ways. The other development was that both were now preaching Hindutva. The Sena, by moving beyond its Marathi manoos plank, was now encroaching on BJP territory. Indeed, the Sena was miffed with Narendra Modi for pitching himself as Hindu Hriday Samrat, a title Bal Thackeray thought belonged to him.
Murmurs had started in the state unit of the BJP about the lopsided ratio of seats which gave a natural advantage to the Sena, but no one, not even the central leaders of the BJP, had the courage to the bell the cat. The Modi-Amit Shah combine had no such compunctions. They saw the Sena as a minor regional player, of not much use to them and they did not have much time for Uddhav Thackeray, who had now become the Sena chief. Uddhav has a lot going for him, but he is no Bal Thackeray who can growl back. The BJP felt it could take away even Marathi votes from him while he couldn’t get any Gujarati or North Indian votes at all. The Sena has not been able to get out of its narrow, nativist rut and that has stopped it from growing.
The partnership was destined to collapse and it did. In the circumstances, the Sena has done well–it managed to get 63 seats and it has ensured that the BJP advance was stopped. Thackeray Jr has led his party successfully and sent a message that the BJP cannot do without him. But the BJP, while it may compromise for the moment, is convinced that it will grow on the backs of the Sena and take away its traditional vote too—Marathi speaking youngsters could move towards Modi. For that, it must make the Sena irrelevant; this the Sena knows and fears.
The two may join hands once more, but it will be more out of expediency than genuine friendship. Whether inside or outside the government, the Sena will be troublesome for the BJP. No wonder Modi and Shah want to lay the line down right now. Both want to expand their bases; the Sena feels the BJP’s growth will come at its expense. They are rivals, not friends, even if they are pretending to be so.
Sidharth Bhatia
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