In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) played a critical role in Mumbai, splitting the anti-Congress and Maharashtrian votes into neat halves, thereby literally gifting to the Congress-NCP all six Parliamentarians from Mumbai.
In seat after seat, the Shiv Sena or BJP candidate lost, with a nearly equal number of votes polled by the MNS spoilers.
Raj Thackeray. AFP image
This time, however, the picture appears far more complicated and less simplistic.
While the MNS fielded candidates in all six constituencies in Mumbai in 2009, this year it has fielded only three candidates in Mumbai - MNS MLA Bala Nandgaonkar in Mumbai South constituency, Aditya Shirodkar in Mumbai South Central constituency and actor-director Mahesh Manjrekar in Mumbai North West. In each of the three constituencies, the NDA candidate is from the Shiv Sena, not BJP, in what appears to have been strategy devised following the controversial Nitin Gadkari-Raj Thackeray meeting last month.
The move might benefit the BJP candidates somewhat, but it has come at a price -- fielding candidates only against the Shiv Sena has hit its image as a party for the 'sons of the soil'. Many Marathi voters are now confused about what the party's ideology really is and where it is headed.
Simultaneously, the Shiv Sena has got the opportunity to portray the MNS as a 'contract killer' working to divide the Marathi votes and help Congress-NCP candidates.
In addition, while the MNS was so far seen as a secular party, especially by young and urbane Maharashtrian voters, that secular image is now dented owing to the party's announcement of support to BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. "I have toured Gujarat in 2010 and have appreciated the development work done by him. In 2010, I had said that we need a leader like Modi as a Prime Minister," said Raj Thackeray while addressing a rally in Naigaum, Dadar, last week.
Refuting allegations about the MNS seeking votes on the name of Modi due to the party's dismal performance in the last five years, Raj said, "I don't need to use his name for the Lok Sabha elections. Though I toured Gujarat in 2010 to see its development, I didn't use his name during civic body elections held in 2012."
But MNS activists themselves appear confused with the party's move to support Modi and to not field candidates against BJP candidates. In the absence of a MNS candidate, just who do they vote for? The BJP's support for north Indians and Biharis is diametrically opposed to the MNS's politics. There could actually be some MNS kaaryakartas preferring to vote for the Congress candidate. Needless to say, MNS activists are also struggling to understand whether the party's support for Modi has also altered the party's anti-north Indian stance.
Now, the MNS is purely banking upon its hardcore voters including Maharashtrian and young voters. It hopes to repeat the 2009 Lok Sabha election performance this time too, but the chances appear dim. In 2009, votes polled by the MNS candidates were between 1 lakh and 2 lakh in each of Mumbai's six seats.
In South Mumbai constituency, MNS candidate and MLA Bala Nandgaonkar will take on the sitting Congress MP Milind Deora, Shiv Sena candidate Arvind Sawant and Aam Adami Party's Meera Sanyal. This LS seat comprises six Assembly segments - three represented by Congress, one each by NCP, MNS and BJP. Nandgaonkar, who finished second against Deora in 2009, will have an uphill task of wooing the 'Marathi manoos' votes this time.
In the South Central constituency, MNS candidate Aditya Shirodkar will contest against sitting Congress MP Eknath Gaikwad and Shiv Sena candidate Rahul Shewale. The constituency, dominated by Dalits, comprises Dadar, Mahim, Wadala, Sion, Anushakti Nagar, Dharavi and Chembur. While the MNS will get votes from its stronghold Dadar, Shivaji Park and Mahim, it is a difficult task for it to woo a large number of Dalit voters in the constituency as the Congress and Shiv Sena has fielded Dalit candidates.
In the North West constituency, MNS candidate and Marathi actor Mahesh Manjrekar will fight sitting Congress MP Gurudas Kamat, Shiv Sena candidate Gajanan Kirtikar and AAP candidate Mayank Gandhi. The assembly segments includes Andheri (East and West), Goregaon, Jogeshwari (East), Versova and Dindoshi. The MNS's presence here is widely being seen as dampening Kirtikar’s chances and splitting the Marathi votes, aiding Kamat.
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