Delhi Elections 2015: Punters too give AAP slender lead over BJP - Economic Times

NEW DELHI: Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party has trumped the Bharatiya Janata Party in Delhi elections if the satta market is anything to go by, staging a spectacular turnaround to turn favourites in 37 of the 70 assembly seats that will suffice to help it form the government on its own.

The count in favour of AAP on the eve of polling was four more than that just two days earlier and more than double that a fortnight ago while the BJP slid to the second slot with 31 seats for the first time in the illegal betting market, down from 34 seats on Wednesday and as many as 46 earlier.

Evenascroresof rupeesarebelievedto exchange hands in betting on the fortunesof politicalpartiesandcandidates, though, thesattamarkethadprovedway of the mark in the previous assembly polls in 2013, when it dismissed AAP as goodenoughforjusteightseatswhilethe party ended up with 28 and predicted 21 seats for the Congress, which ended up with a mere eight.

But what explains the surge in the AAP's tally in the satta market? More than anything else, it signals a stark failure of the BJP's strategy in the run-up to the polls.

Till January 20, punters were giving AAP just 18 seats. However, the party's graph started rising after the BJP named Kiran Bedi as its chief ministerial candidate and the party hasn't looked back since. Nothing seems to have worked with the BJP during this period, not even the open support of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh on the final day of campaigning on Thursday.

Kejriwal's personal stock has also risen in the satta market. Earlier, a bet of Rs 1 lakh on Kejriwal's loss would have fetched Rs 16 lakh. Now, a similar bet will fetch Rs 18 lakh. The higher figure represents a dip in the expectations of such an occurrence. "It is surprising how AAP has turned the tables on BJP in barely a fortnight. The pace at which its graph has risen each day is unprecedented," said a punter.

Much to Congress' chagrin, the party that ruled Delhi for three consecutive terms till 2013 has maintained its slide. On Friday, the party's tally in the satta market was down to four seats from six earlier.

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