How Modi's Hindutva image helped his pro-development agenda - Firstpost

By MK Venu

There is an element of Marquez-like magical realism in the way Narendra Modi has risen to national prominence, culminating in his becoming India's prime minister. To Namo's opposition, it might seem like a chronicle of Modi as PM foretold if one looks at the sequence of events from the time he won the Gujarat assembly elections in 2012 and began his relentless march to New Delhi with the help of his much touted "Gujarat Model", which carried with it an underlying majoritarian flavour.

And almost as if by some unconscious design, this majoritarian flavour has articulated itself in Uttar Pradesh which has no Muslim Lok Sabha member for the first time in history. Because, as in Gujarat, BJP didn't give any ticket to a Muslim in Uttar Pradesh where it won 90 percent of the seats.

Modi's rise appears Marquez-like because the formidable forces ranged against him, including those within his own party, clearly foresaw the beginning of Modi mania in Gujarat which gradually moved, in a surreal manner, to New Delhi after 2012. The only problem was the political opposition just could not fathom how Modi had created this curious alchemy (Modi likes the word chemistry) of Hindutva and development in the Gujarat context. His development messaging was very overt but beneath that he sold his persona of a strong Hindu leader ever so subtly.

PM designate Narendra Modi. PTI

As the opposition kept attacking him for his version of development and his attitude to minorities, his overall persona became stronger and stronger. The Congress and other opposition to Modi waked into a sort of political trap where Modi was inviting scathing criticism but became a strong messenger of it.

Modi kept breaking through barriers set up by his political opposition and this is most visible in some fundamental shifts in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

So how did this all this happen? In the 2014 election there was obviously a sweeping wave in favour of the BJP in North India where the party bagged on average over 95 percent of all seats. This also marked the decimation of Congress as it got just 10 out of 233 Lok Sabha seats in 11 North Indian states. This was Congress' worst defeat in this region. It was clear that Modi had set the agenda for 2014 and the Congress was in reactive mode all the way.

The big Modi wave in the North helped the party break age old caste barriers, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the key battle states. In this context, the most significant development was Mayawati’s BSP not opening its account in Uttar Pradesh.This has deeper implications.

Modi asserted in his victory speech at Vadaodara that the 2014 elections had broken all caste barriers. In fact he made a more specific argument. Modi said, "We managed to break caste barriers but without resorting to religious appeal." Was there a Freudian slip here? Did Modi mean he could have used religious appeal more overtly, if needed?

The truth is Modi's strong persona as a development oriented Hindu leader appeals to the young voter.

Many young voters this writer spoke to in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and Rajasthan did say they liked the image of Modi as a strong Hindu leader. Modi is very well aware of this.

So while Modi made a focused development pitch, his appeal as a strong Hindu leader always played at the back of the young voter’s mind. This has helped the BJP break the caste silos in Uttar Pradesh. The Dalits and OBCs have evidently voted for BJP in big numbers in this elections. This enabled the BJP to grab an unprecedented 42 percent vote share in a four cornered fight in Uttar Pradesh. As a result the BJP’s tally of 71 out of 80 seats was beyond the party’s wildest expectation. The BJP’s own best case scenario was between 45 to 50 seats.

The Uttar Pradesh numbers show that the BJP’s vote share of 42 percent is more than the combined vote shares of both Samajwadi Party (22 percent) and BSP (19 percent). Consequently, in most constituencies in eastern Uttar Pradesh, where Mulayam and Mayawati were traditionally strong, the combined votes of SP and BSP is less than the votes polled by the BJP candidate. This has happened for the first time.

In western Uttar Pradesh, the BJP broke the back of the Ajit Singh’s Rashtriaya Lok Dal, with both he and his son, Jayant Chaudhary, losing their elections. The Jats seem to have deserted Ajit Singh substantially.

While it is true that Modi has badly dented the caste based formations in Uttar Pradesh it may be a bit early to write off the caste factor in Indian politics. Such results have come in the past but people have returned to caste loyalties later, especially in rural areas. However, it is true that development and rapid urbanisation does dilute the caste factor. But India is at least a few decades away from a critical mass of urbanisation.

In Bihar, the other major battleground, the BJP alliance did very well to grab 28 seats, which was again beyond their expectations. The BJP leaders had publicly admitted during the last three election phases that Lalu Prasad had staged a comeback with his Muslim-Yadav consolidation. Again this did not work for Lalu as large chunks the Extremely Backward Castes(EBCs), constituting some 33 percent of votes, probably went for Modi. Consequently, Lalu's party on its own got less seats than Paswan's LJP which got the benefit of the Modi votes. The BJP had successfully played Modi’s backward caste status in the Bihar campaign.

In a sense, Modi has done the impossible in the 2014 general election. He has successfully managed to create a new chemistry by combining two opposed social forces—Mandal and Kamandal. BJP’s Kamandal strategy (Ayodhya rath yatra) was launched by LK Advani to unify Hindu society against caste divisions caused by Mandal politics in 1989. Modi is actually exploiting both through subtle messaging.

Today Modi is attempting this synthesis on the platform of development. This might work if Modi uses the process of materialist development, as a class unifying social force, to cut through both Hindutva and Caste on a more permanent basis. Does he have the vision to do this in the face of the pressure from the Sangh parivar? After all it was the Sangh Parivar, as claimed by Amit Shah, that provided some 80,000 polling booth "karyakartas" in the 80 constituencies of Uttar Pradesh. This is a question to which we will have answers in the way Modi governs India with a BJP majority in Parliament.

Modi has started well by saying he will try to take every Member of Parliament along to execute his new vision of development. For instance, he has responded to a congratulatory message from newly elected Congress MP from Kerala, Shashi Tharoor, saying, "Congratulations for your victory as well. Lets work together to create a better India." If this spirit is truly observed, the BJP might be able to use its simple majority in Lok Sabha to break fresh ground in terms of both governance and social cohesion.

The writer is executive editor at Amar Ujala Group.